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Aerospace supply chain bottlenecks continue to limit airline growth, IATA warns
IATA reports that aerospace supply chain bottlenecks remain a major constraint for airlines, with delivery shortfalls, ageing fleets and rising maintenance costs expected to challenge the industry well into the next decade.
GENEVA – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has issued an updated analysis on global aerospace supply chain bottlenecks, noting that aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints on airline growth. Despite a slight recovery in aircraft deliveries in late 2025 and projections for increased production in 2026, IATA warns that demand will continue to exceed available aircraft and engines for years to come.
According to the latest outlook, the structural imbalance between airline fleet needs and manufacturer output is unlikely to normalise before 2031–2034. The delays of the past five years, combined with record order backlogs, have created a persistent supply gap.
Delivery shortfalls and ageing fleets
IATA highlights that delivery shortfalls now exceed 5,300 aircraft, while the global order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft – nearly 60% of the world’s active fleet and equivalent to 12 years of current manufacturing capacity. Historically, order backlogs represented just 30–40% of the active fleet.
The average fleet age has also increased to 15.1 years, with passenger aircraft averaging 12.8 years and cargo aircraft 19.6 years. More than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage globally, despite strong airline demand.
“Airlines are feeling the impact of the aerospace supply chain challenges across their business,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Higher leasing costs, reduced scheduling flexibility, delayed sustainability gains and increased reliance on suboptimal aircraft types are the most obvious challenges. Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top-line, improve their environmental performance and serve customers. Meanwhile travelers are seeing higher costs from the resulting tighter demand/supply conditions. No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”
Production delays driven by multiple pressures
IATA reports that production delays are being intensified by several interconnected issues:
- Airframe output exceeds engine availability, causing newly built aircraft to remain grounded until engines are delivered.
- Certification timelines have doubled, from 12–24 months to as long as five years, slowing entry of new aircraft types into service — especially long-haul widebodies.
- US–China trade tensions have amplified bottlenecks in metals and electronics, raising some maintenance costs.
- Skilled labour shortages in engine and component manufacturing are constraining production ramp-up efforts.
- A fragile supplier ecosystem, often dependent on a limited number of specialised vendors, increases vulnerability to even minor disruptions.
These challenges are also slowing progress on fuel efficiency. After decades of annual improvements averaging 2%, gains dropped to 0.3% in 2025 and are projected to reach only 1% in 2026.
Cargo operations also face future risks
The report warns that air cargo operations may soon experience capacity constraints:
- Fewer passenger aircraft are being converted for cargo use, as airlines keep older jets in service longer.
- New-build widebody freighters are facing production delays.
- Many ageing cargo aircraft are nearing the limits of their operational life.
Economic impact: USD 11 billion in additional costs
A joint study by IATA and Oliver Wyman estimates that supply chain bottlenecks will cost airlines over USD 11 billion in 2025, driven by:
- USD 4.2 billion in excess fuel costs from operating older fleets
- USD 3.1 billion in additional maintenance expenses
- USD 2.6 billion in higher engine leasing rates and aircraft lease costs
- USD 1.4 billion in surplus spare parts inventory
Pathways to recovery
The study outlines several recommendations to accelerate supply chain improvements:
- Modernise aftermarket frameworks by reducing dependency on OEM-controlled licensing and enabling alternative sourcing.
- Improve supply chain visibility to detect risks early and reduce inefficiencies.
- Expand use of predictive maintenance, shared data platforms and spare parts pooling to reduce downtime.
- Increase repair and parts capacity, including greater adoption of Used Serviceable Material (USM) and advanced manufacturing solutions.
Tatiana is the news coordinator for TravelDailyNews Media Network (traveldailynews.gr, traveldailynews.com and traveldailynews.asia). Her role includes monitoring the hundreds of news sources of TravelDailyNews Media Network and skimming the most important according to our strategy.
She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Communication & Mass Media from Panteion University of Political & Social Studies of Athens and she has been editor and editor-in-chief in various economic magazines and newspapers.