How New U.S. Visa Waiver Rules Could Cost America Tens of Billions in Lost Tourism

The United States risks billions in lost tourism as proposed Visa Waiver entry rules demand years of social media and personal data from travelers. Privacy-conscious Europeans may simply stay away, threatening jobs, airlines, and hospitality nationwide while damaging America’s global image as a welcoming destination.

The United States risks triggering one of the most self-inflicted tourism downturns in modern history—not because of war, pandemic, or economic collapse, but because of privacy.

A new proposal by the Trump administration would fundamentally alter how travelers from 42 visa-waiver countries enter the United States. Under a Department of Homeland Security notice now under review, visitors who currently enjoy visa-free access would be required to submit extensive personal data before traveling, including five years of social media history, up to ten years of email usage, and detailed personal information about immediate family members.

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For millions of travelers—especially Europeans—this is not a minor administrative change. It is a red line.

The Scale of What Is at Risk

According to U.S. Department of Homeland Security data, approximately 18 million travelers entered the United States under the Visa Waiver Program (VWP) in fiscal year 2023, generating an estimated USD 84 billion in direct visitor spending.

Using official U.S. travel-survey ratios, approximately 56% of those travelers came for pure leisure tourism, not business or family visits. That translates to:

• ~10 million tourism-only visitors
• ~USD 47 billion in direct tourism spending
• ~350,000 U.S. jobs supported across hospitality, retail, transport, and services

This spending is not theoretical. It pays hotel workers in New York, tour operators in Florida, restaurant staff in California, and airline employees nationwide. International tourism remains one of America’s most powerful export industries—foreign visitors bring money into the U.S. economy without exporting jobs.

Why Europe Reacts Differently Than the U.S.

The proposed data collection collides head-on with European privacy culture.

Unlike the United States, where personal data is frequently commodified, Europe operates under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)—the world’s strictest and most influential privacy framework. Under GDPR:

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• Data collection must be necessary, proportional, and purpose-limited
• Individuals have enforceable rights over how their data is stored, shared, and retained
• Government access to personal communications and opinions is tightly constrained

Asking European travelers to hand over years of political opinions, personal associations, religious expressions, and private communications—often posted casually or context-free on social media—will be widely perceived not as security screening, but as surveillance.

For many Europeans, this is not about “having nothing to hide.” It is about state overreach and loss of control over personal identity.

Tourism Is Discretionary—and the U.S. Is Replaceable

Tourism is not migration. It is optional.

European travelers who decide the U.S. is no longer worth the privacy risk have abundant alternatives:

• Intra-European travel within the Schengen Area
• Canada (visa-light, privacy-respecting)
• Japan, South Korea, Australia
• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Middle Eastern destinations aggressively courting European visitors

When friction rises, travelers do not protest—they simply go elsewhere.

Industry history shows that even small increases in perceived hassle or risk can cause double-digit percentage declines in discretionary long-haul travel.

What Happens If Europeans Stay Away?

Using conservative scenario modeling based on 2023 data:

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If only 10% of VWP tourists stay away:

• USD 8.4 billion lost annually
• ~63,000 U.S. jobs affected

If 25% opt out:

• USD 21 billion lost
• ~158,000 jobs impacted

If 50% decide the U.S. is no longer worth it:

• USD 42 billion lost
• ~315,000 jobs at risk

And if European leisure travel collapses entirely from VWP markets:

• USD 47 billion in tourism exports disappear
• Over 350,000 U.S. jobs destabilized

These losses would not be evenly distributed. They would hit hardest in tourism-dependent states—Florida, New York, Nevada, California, Hawaii—many of which rely heavily on European visitors who stay longer and spend more than average.

Embassy Asked, No Answer Yet

eTurboNews has reached out to the United States Embassy in Berlin for comment on the proposed measures and their potential impact on German and European travel sentiment. As of publication, no response has been received.

Among the questions posed was what steps, if any, the U.S. government is taking to address the increasingly negative perception of the United States among German travelers, particularly regarding privacy, welcome culture, and the treatment of foreign visitors at U.S. borders. Industry observers note that Germany remains one of the United States’ most important long-haul tourism source markets—and that rebuilding trust, once lost, is far more difficult than maintaining it.

Security vs. Self-Sabotage

U.S. authorities argue the new requirements are needed to enforce executive orders aimed at preventing threats to national security and public safety. But the proposal raises fundamental questions:

• Will retrospective social-media screening meaningfully improve security?
• Who interprets “anti-American” speech—and by what standard?
• How are satire, criticism, activism, or youthful expression judged?
• How long is this data stored, and who has access to it?

For many potential visitors, the answer is simple: it is not worth finding out.

Tourism thrives on welcome, trust, and predictability. Surveillance-style entry policies send the opposite message.

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A Strategic Own Goal

At a time when the U.S. is still working to regain its pre-pandemic share of global tourism, this policy risks turning America from a “must-visit destination” into a high-risk, high-friction choice.

Would Europeans stop traveling to the United States

For Europeans—raised in a culture where privacy is a fundamental right, not a negotiable privilege—the signal is clear: You are welcome, but only if you surrender your digital life.

History suggests many will say no thank you.

And the U.S. economy will pay the price—not in theory, but in empty hotel rooms, cancelled flights, lost jobs, and billions of dollars that never cross the Atlantic.